leading indicator

A leading indicator is an economic gauge that records changes before the overall economy experiences them. They are used to forecast financial and economic trends.

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The classic example of a leading indicator would be the housing market, where developments in housing tend to precede developments in the rest of the economy, expanding before more wide spread economic growth, and contracting before economic recession.

Other examples of leading indicators include inventory rations, machinery orders, stock prices, average manufacturing workweek and housing permits.

Leading Indicator Index

A number of countries also offer a Leading Indicator Index, which brings together a number of economic indicators that tend to precede the rest of the economy. Although many indices have a less than perfect historical record, and often the components of leading indicators are know in advance of the indicator release - it still is a worthwhile forecasting tool and used by central banks and analysts.

See Leading Indicators for the United States, Japan, Canada and Switzerland.

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